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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2022-07-21T01:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-07-21T01:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/20922/-1
CME Note: Second of a triplet of CMEs that are difficult to analyze due to ongoing coronagraph data gaps. This CME's source location appears to be associated with dimming seen around the vicinity of N25E10 from 19:30Z to 21:00Z in GOES SUVI 195 imagery due to an ongoing SDO maneuver at the time. CME arrival is characterized by a sudden increase in B_total to ~17nT accompanied by increases in density, temperature, and solar wind speed (peaking around ~700km/s) at L1. This arrival is also associated with the CME first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2022-07-21T01:48Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-07-23T02:28Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-07-23T03:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version:
Resolution:
Ambient settings:
WSA version:

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):
Longitude (deg):
Latitude (deg):
Half-angular width (deg):

Notes:

Lead Time: 44.47 hour(s)
Difference: -0.53 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Robert Loper (M2M Office) on 2022-07-21T06:00Z

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