CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2022-07-21T01:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-07-21T01:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/20922/-1
CME Note: Second of a triplet of CMEs that are difficult to analyze due to ongoing coronagraph data gaps. This CME's source location appears to be associated with dimming seen around the vicinity of N25E10 from 19:30Z to 21:00Z in GOES SUVI 195 imagery due to an ongoing SDO maneuver at the time. CME arrival is characterized by a sudden increase in B_total to ~17nT accompanied by increases in density, temperature, and solar wind speed (peaking around ~700km/s) at L1. This arrival is also associated with the CME first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2022-07-21T01:48Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-07-23T02:28Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-07-23T03:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:
Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version:
Resolution:
Ambient settings:
WSA version:

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):
Longitude (deg):
Latitude (deg):
Half-angular width (deg):

Notes:
Lead Time: 44.47 hour(s)
Difference: -0.53 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Robert Loper (M2M Office) on 2022-07-21T06:00Z
CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement